Why did we fight the
Iraq War?
The weapons of
mass-destruction were never found. Claims of Iraqi complicity in
9/11, so valiantly asserted by Vice-president Cheney, have been
refuted.
What possessed our
government to attack Iraq?
The answer that it was
all about control of Iraqi oil continues losing plausibility. TIME
Magazine for Dec 19, 2009 reported, for instance, that in the then
most recent oil concessions auctions, the major contracts went to
Russia and China.
But a very interesting
account of the motivations behind the Iraq war has recently been
offered by Andrew Bacevich, previously a professional army officer,
now a professor at Boston University, and one of the most thoughtful
and reasonable defense intellectual.
In “A Letter to Paul
Wolfowitz” ( Harpers,
March 2013) Bacevich ascribes Wolfowitz’ persistent and energetic
push for an attack on Iraq to the idea that the US needed to
establish its invincible military power for all the world to see.
The greatest challenges
to US security, so the doctrine goes, comes from unexpected attacks
such a Pearl Harbor or 9/11. The way to deter others from
perpetrating such unexpected attacks on us was to establish beyond
the shadow of a doubt that the US is militarily extremely strong.
Attacks on the US would invite terrible retaliation.
In order to prove that,
the Iraq war was supposed to follow this script: After massive
bombing--“shock and awe”--the Iraqi army collapsed and our
troops, encountering minimal opposition, entered Baghdad quickly.
President Bush did his little performance on the deck of a US
aircraft carrier in front of the banner reading “Mission
Accomplished.” After that the war should have been over. Iraq
having been properly humiliated; the US army would return home
triumphantly.
But instead, as
Bacevich writes, there was
“ the insurgency,
Fallujah and Abu Ghraib, thousands of American lives lost and
damaged, at least 125,000 Iraqis killed, and some 3 million others
exiled or displaced; more than a trillion dollars squandered.”
The whole project
miscarried to truly grotesque extent. The US showed itself to be
armed to the teeth and yet militarily completely impotent.
How could that have
happened?
Bacevich describes
Wolfowitz and the people he worked with as exceptionally intelligent.
But it looks as if they
also suffered from the common disease of very intelligent people:
they vastly overestimated their capacities.
Wolfowitz’s project
was to minimize catastrophic surprise by eliminating threats before
they materialize: if the US is immensely powerful and makes that
amply clear to the rest of the world, unexpected attacks are going to
be less likely.
Sheer intelligence was
going to overcome the randomness of human history. The brilliant
experts were no longer threatened by the unexpected. The future would
be made predictable. Preventive wars would make us secure.We could
forestall unpredictable attacks.
But once again the
excessive self-confidence of these smart men made them overlook the
most obvious fact of the twenty-first century: unpredicted changes
continue to happen. The future is as opaque as it always was. A prime
example: warfare has changed. Conquering territory, destroying enemy
armies in the field is no longer what war is all about. Terror has
become a central weapon.
You can terrorize the
enemy by bombing their cities and killing their citizens as all
sides did in World War II. But as the attack on the Boston Marathon
shows, you can do the same thing with two pressure cookers filled
with nails. We
spend about seven hundred billion dollars a year keeping ourselves
armed. It takes a few very primitive homemade explosive devices to
show how impotent we are.
It
is by no means clear what, in the end, the effect of terrorist
campaigns will be. But "the most powerful military in the world"
has not figured out how to deal with terrorism.
The
Wolfowitz doctrine was designed for a world that no longer exists.
The doctrine might have been useful in the nineteenth century.
It
is important to remember, especially for smart people, that we are
rarely as smart as we think we are and that there is such a thing as
being too smart for one's own good. Humility and modesty are rarely
out of place. They are certainly not out of place when you endanger
the lives of millions of people.